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Egypt to
go to polls, a revolution continues
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by Paolo B. Maligaya, NAMFREL Senior
Operations Associate |
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from
NAMFREL Election Monitor Vol.2, No.24 |
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On November 28, Egypt will go to the polls
to elect members of the lower house of parliament, the first such
electoral exercise in the country since the end of the 30-year
presidency of Hosni Mubarak, forced to resign in February during the
Egypt uprisings which started in January 2011. The Egyptian
revolution followed similar protests in Tunisia; these uprisings as
well as those in neighboring countries similarly calling for the end
of the respective regimes in power, were later dubbed the "Arab
Spring."
While the election in Tunisia, held on October 24, was hailed as
orderly and peaceful, the lead-up to the Egyptian parliamentary
elections has been characterized by mistrust and confusion. After
Mubarak's resignation, Egypt has been under the Supreme Council of
the Armed Forces (SCAF), essentially a military junta, which
suspended the constitution, dissolved both houses of parliament, and
who said they would rule for only six months prior to holding of
elections. After several changes in dates, the SCAF finally
announced that the election for People's Assembly (members of the
lower house of parliament) would take place in three stages between
November 28 and January 10; the election for Shura Council (upper
house), also in three stages, between January 29 and March 11; and
finally, a presidential election, in a date still to be determined.
The Parliament will be tasked to draft a new constitution for Egypt.
A Supreme Electoral Commission (SEC), composed of judges -- said to
include Mubarak appointees -- will administer the elections; more
than 9,000 judges will supervise the
polls, with at least one judge to be assigned in each polling
station. In July, during the presentation of a new election law, the
military rulers said they will not allow foreign observers to
monitor the election, saying "we reject anything that affects our
sovereignty." Even local monitors reportedly will be granted limited
privileges. The decision was swiftly criticized by Egyptian
activists and international governments and organizations. The
chairman of the SEC later stated that international monitors and the
media would be welcome to "follow" -- rather than officially
"observe" -- the parliamentary election. Much later, only one
foreign organization, The Carter Center, reportedly was granted
access to "witness" the election. In comparison, Tunisia allowed
hundreds of foreign observers and thousands of
local observers to monitor the October polls.
The Egyptian election process is complicated:
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The elections for
People's Assembly will be done in three stages for all of
Egypt's 27 governorates: polling on November 28, run off on
December 5 in 9 governorates (including Cairo and
Alexandria); polling on December 14, run off on December 21
in another 9 governorates; and polling on January 3, run off
on January 10 in the 9 remaining governorates |
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498 seats will
compose the People's Assembly, 10 of which will be appointed
by the SCAF |
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The new election
system divides the country into 129 People's Assembly
constituencies. Each constituency will have between two and
12 seats. |
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Of the 498 seats
for lower house, 332 from 46 constituencies will be elected
via proportional representation list system. The 50 or so
political parties contesting the election would have a list
of candidates for each constituency, and must include at
least one female candidate. However, these lists are closed
to the public. Half of these political parties were formed
only this year, and most of those in existence prior to 2011
were largely unknown to most Egyptians. |
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Of the 498 seats,
166 from 83 constituencies will be elected via individual
candidacy system
(first-past-the-post); almost 6,600 candidates are
contesting these 166 seats |
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The Shura Council
elections, starting in late January, will also be done in
three stages. |
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The run-off
elections will be held in constituencies where none of the
candidates got more than 50% of the total votes. |
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The country's military rulers cited security concerns and the
country's large number of voters as the reasons for coming up with
the system. Most Egyptians however are confused with the new system,
that some are saying the people will just likely vote for the people
or organizations they voted for in the past (specifically, members
of Mubarak's now defunct National Democratic Party that used to
dominate elections by landslide margins), meaning there will not be
much change after the revolution. In a welcome change, Egyptians
will now be able to use their identity cards to be able to vote,
unlike during Mubarak's time when citizens had to obtain special
voting cards from police stations. More than 50 million people are
eligible to vote in the upcoming elections. Voting will also be done
in Egypt's
different embassies and consulates around the world.
Analysts have grouped the different political parties in Egypt into
four categories: Islamists, leftists, liberals, and revolutionary
youth parties. There are also independent candidates running as
individuals. Among the different categories, the Islamists have
benefited from the Egypt uprisings as they were banned and jailed
during the Mubarak regime. Among the Islamists, the Muslim
Brotherhood, formed in 1927, is pegged to dominate the polls. Though
conservative, they are said to be moderate compared with other
Islamic parties contesting the election. Among the liberals, the New
Wafd Party enjoys the most support based on surveys.
The campaign period officially started on November 2. Almost
immediately, news of "vote traders" surfaced, of people buying and
selling votes for a price. Islamists were accused of giving away
food or selling goods at half-price in Cairo. Under the SEC's
regulations, election offenders face imprisonment of up to 15 years,
and a fine of up to 200,000 EGP (more than US$ 33,000). The SEC has
also set a ceiling of 500,000 EGP on campaign expenditures for
independent candidates, and 1 million EGP for party lists.
The transparency of the coming elections is also being questioned,
as Egyptian NGOs will not be allowed to intervene if there are cases
of fraud. Also, because of the current electoral system, many people
up to now do not know who are running in their constituencies.
Many are not confident about the upcoming polls, saying that the
present system shows that the new military rulers are reluctant to
hand over power to democratically-elected leaders, as they keep
delaying the hand-over of power to democratically-elected civilians.
The military has also been violent to peaceful protesters, causing
protesters to fight back; many have died and have been injured in
violent clashes between the military/police and civilians even after
Mubarak's ouster.
Many are still hopeful though that the upcoming parliamentary
elections will be successful. The Arab world is looking at Egypt and
taking its cue, its citizens continue to inspire neighbors hoping
for revolutions in their own backyards. They do not want Tunisia to
be a fluke. Can democracy truly work in their context, they want to
find out. The longer the military clings to power though, or the
longer the vestiges of the Mubarak regime remain visible, the more
they risk the rise of extremists that Mubarak successfully stamped
out during his regime, gaining support among citizens who are
similarly voicing out against the current leadership. The country
may also be losing an opportunity for unity made possible by the
events in January; already, people are taking sides as diverse
groups have sprang up, gained prominence, and started to quarrel in
the aftermath of the uprisings.
The revolution is not over. It has just begun, and Egyptians want it
sustained. There are still people in Tahrir Square because they want
change, and so far they are not seeing it. They want the military
rulers to immediately move towards the transition of power. The
conduct of timely, transparent, free and fair elections, actively
participated in by Egyptian citizens who have been waiting for this
time for more than 30 years, could hopefully, finally lead to that. |
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